Knowledge-based system for Texas Hold'em outcome prediction - Ed Duarte
Knowledge-based system for Texas Hold'em outcome prediction

For a University class project we were asked to implement a decision-tree classifier and to use a rule engine in order to develop a recommender system for hands and outcomes in Poker Texas Hold’em matches. An additional challenge to this was to make it in a functional language like Erlang, where no variable state is persisted in memory for long periods of time. Instead, the objective was to use a rule engine more-or-less like a disk database. All of the historical data collected over time is sent between functions in a stateless manner and persisted to disk using the rule engine.

With this, I developed a Erlang application with a CLI interface that collects game data and sends win-lose percentages on each round. It works by prompting the user to fill the card in his/her hand and table for each round, and whenever the user won or lost each match. The probabilities of occurrence for each card per round, along with the probability of winning or losing the match with the current cards, are recalculated at the end of every match and organized into a Decision tree. Each round the probability of getting a good hand and win the match is queried from the Decision tree and printed to the user, suggesting him to either raise, call or fold.

The application is fully open-source and only uses a single file (‘poker.erl’). A trained model containing an history of matches and hands is also provided (‘storage’ file), so you can start testing the application immediately.

This application is composed of three modules:

• a main module, which uses Eresye to store Texas Hold’em rules and hand rankings;
• a history module, which stores the number of occurrences and the ranking of hands;
• a tree module, that implements the decision tree and the probability calculation methods.

## Preliminaries

A match is considered a result of seven cards that showed up throughout four rounds. The four rounds are numbered from 0 to 3:

• Round 0: when the user is given 2 cards
• Round 1: when the first, second and third cards on the table are shown
• Round 2: when the fourth card on the table is shown
• Round 3: when the fifth card on the table is shown

We consider that it is only possible to either raise, call or fold between the four rounds. Hence, there are three phases of betting. In this implementation draws are ignored, so as to not influence the collected probabilities of winning or losing by reducing the sample data of both.

A rank is a weight of importance associated with a specific set of cards. These ranks are, in order: 1. Royal Flush; 2. Straight Flush; 3. Four Of A Kind; 4. Full House; 5. Flush; 6. Straight; 7. Three Of A Kind; 8. Two Pair; 9. Pair; 10. High Card.

## Main module

The main module uses the rule-based engine Eresye to store variables per match and Texas Hold’em hand rankings. For each match, the user is prompted to input:

• the 7 cards that are visible to the user;
• the current pot value;
• the final result of the game (‘won’ or ‘lost’).

Some additional inputs can be used at any time:

• “reset”: discards the current match inputs and starts again from round 0;
• “close”: saves the current history data into a local file ‘storage’ and closes the application.

The current match data is only committed to history at the end of the match, so a “reset” will discard the current match.

When prompting for a card, two inputs are required: the suit and the value. Cards are then structured as {card, ID, Suit, Value} and compared with other hands (and their ranks) in Eresye. The ID value is randomly attributed using the method random:uniform(), and is used to ensure that the card will not be compared with itself during Eresye’s operations.

Review note (May 20, 2019): In retrospective, using the result of random:uniform() as an ID is a bad idea, as it can lead to collisions (even if they are rare). An unique UUID or a counting integer should have been used instead.

## Decision tree module

The decision tree module implements a Decision tree where each node corresponds to a round, and each round has 3 branches pointing to 3 child nodes. Each branch and node stores, respectively:

• branch1 - Expected profit on Raise; node1 - Raise value
• branch2 - Expected profit on Fold; node2 - Fold value
• branch3 - Expected profit on Call; node3 - Call value

Because the probability of winning (PWin) varies according to the user’s hand and the current round, this decision tree is built at the end of each round, and the expected profits are calculated as such:

$$ExpectedProfitRaise = \left(Pot + RaiseValue\right) * PWin$$

$$ExpectedProfitFold = -\left(BetsDoneByPlayer\right)$$

$$ExpectedProfitCall = Pot * PWin$$

BetsDoneByPlayer is the total value of bets done by the user to that point, or in other words, the number of chips the user placed in the pot.

PWin can be calculated using the History module and its Bayesian network (see below), where we can obtain the number of wins attained with the current hand, but also the possible hands that can be obtained in future rounds knowing the current hand. Assuming that:

• c is the current hand;
• x is a possible hand in the next round;
• t is the total number of matches recorded in history;
• function W is the number of historic wins for a specific hand;

Then PWin can be obtained using the following expression:

$$P(c) = \frac{W(c)}{t} = \sum_{x=1}^{\infty} \left ( \frac{ W(x) }{t} + P \left ( x | c \right ) \right )$$

Once all of the expected profits are calculated, the action that the user should take corresponds to the one that has the higher expected profit.

## History module

The history module is a data history, implemented using an alternative Eresye engine (different from the one used in the main module). Essentially, using Eresye allows the usage of insertion and query within a single variable that does not need to be passed along functions, something that would otherwise be impossible to do in native Erlang. In addition, the query implementation of Eresye enables the retrieval of tuples without knowing all of its data, using the wildcard ‘_’ (underscore).

The data in storage is structured as:

• {round_no, current_rank, previous_round_rank, occurrence_count}: the number of times the user had a ranked hand Y knowing that he/she had a ranked hand X on a previous hand (where Rank(Y) >= Rank(X));

• {won/lost, current_rank, occurrence_count}: the number of times the user won or lost with a specific ranked hand;

• {total, total_matches_count}: the total number of matches that were played with the application.

Note that the above data-types are identified by the first constant, so in practice we will have 7 data-types (4 for each of the four rounds, 2 for won or lost hands, and 1 for total matches count).

By storing the history on the local file ‘storage’, we have a continually trained model, persistent between different application sessions. The prediction of outcomes is based on conditional probabilities per round. For example, for the following match…

• Round 0 = High Card
• Round 1 = Pair
• Round 2 = Pair
• Round 3 = Two Pair

… where Total is the total number of matches stored in history and where the asterisk is a wildcard, the conditional probability for each round is calculated as follows:

Round 0:

$$P(Pair | HighCard) = \frac{query(round1, pair, highCard, *)}{Total}$$

Round 1:

$$P(Pair | Pair) = \frac{query(round2, pair, pair, *)}{Total}$$

Round 2:

$$P(TwoPair | Pair) = \frac{query(round3, twoPair, pair, *)}{Total}$$

This lets us know if the chance to get other more valuable ranks is high enough for it to be worth a raise or a call.

## Final thoughts

That’s all! With all these modules, our knowledge management system for Texas Hold’em outcome prediction is complete! In a way, we used Eresye to store state, essentially getting around the functional and immutable nature of Erlang. There might have been better ways to keep the statelessness by passing the complete records around every function, but regardless, the decision-tree classifier is completely stateless and, surprisingly, highly readable and maintainable.

Give it a go! And as always - feel free to get in touch.